Inductive and Deductive Arguments
Deductively valid arguments are arguments in which the
premises guarantee the truth of the conclusion. If the premises
the true, the conclusion must also be true. Deductive arguments
have a formal structure, which can be put into symbolic form.
Deductive arguments are either valid or invalid based on their
structure or form, so they are sometimes called formal
arguments. We looked at some basic deductively valid argument
forms:
modus ponens,
modus tollens, disjunctive
syllogism and dilemma. We also looked at two formal fallacies;
denying the antecedent and asserting the consequent.
You can put any set of premises and any conclusion into a valid
deductive argument and know that the conclusion is true if the
premises are. If Socrates is human and hemlock is fatal to all
human beings, it follows as a matter of logic that Socrates will
die after drinking the hemlock. If Socrates drinks the hemlock
and seems no the worse for wear, then one of our premises must
be false. Either he's not really a human being - maybe he's a
god in human disguise or an alien - or it's not true that
hemlock is fatal to all human beings. Maybe he didn't really
drink the hemlock. Maybe some human beings have an immunity to
hemlock. Whatever the case, we know that one of our premises
must be false, because if the premises were true, the conclusion
would have to be. If the premises are not true, nothing can be
deduced about the truth of the conclusion.
Inductively strong arguments only guarantee the truth of
the conclusion with a certain degree of probability. If the
premises are true, then the conclusion is
probably true,
perhaps with 99.999999999% certainty, but there is a
logical
possibility that it's false. Why not just go with deductive
arguments then? Take the following example: "If the defendant
had the means, motive and opportunity to commit the crime, then
he is guilty. He had the means, motive and opportunity to commit
the crime, therefore he is guilty." That's
modus ponens
and a deductively valid argument. But how do you know the second
premise is true? The prosecutor gains nothing by casting his
argument in deductive form, because what matters is the strength
of inductive evidence, not the formal structure of his argument.
It's more natural to argue, "The defendant had the means, motive
and opportunity to commit the crime, therefore he is guilty
to
a reasonable doubt. Most arguments are inductive in nature
and attempting to stuff them into a formal deductive structure
is counter-productive.
Logicians reserve the terms valid and invalid for deductive
arguments but refer to inductive arguments as
strong or
weak. Like deductive arguments, they can go wrong in two
ways:
weak premises or
faulty logic. If one of
the premises is false or doubtful, then the conclusion doesn't
logically follow. Or, all of the premises may be true and well
grounded in evidence, but they still don't support the
conclusion. Suppose someone argues, "The rich hardly pay any
taxes, therefore any tax reform plan should exclude them. This
might be a good argument if the premise was true, but it's not.
For example, the top 20% pay 95% of all Federal income taxes,
whereas the bottom 40% pay nothing or get money back. The flaw
in this argument is a faulty premise. On the other hand, suppose
someone argues, "Margaret Sanger, the founder of Planned
Parenthood, was a white supremacist and promoted abortion as a
means of keeping keeping the 'less desirable' races from
breeding. Abortion is a eugenics project." The premise is
actually true in this case, but doesn't support the conclusion.
Just because Planned Parenthood was founded on eugenicist
principles doesn't mean it operates on those principles today.
To conclude something about a thing based on its origin is
called the
genetic fallacy.
Common Informal Arguments
Point Out Internal Inconsistency in a
Contrary View: Because a contradiction can't be true,
showing an inconsistency can make your view look better,
although an opponent may surprise you by adjusting his
beliefs in the wrong direction. Suppose you are talking with
a conservative about the war on drugs. He claims to support
limited Constitutional government but favors federal laws
prohibiting the use of mood altering substances. You might
point out that regulation of drugs is not one of the
enumerated powers of Congress, and that the 18th Amendment
(alcohol prohibition) would have been superfluous if
Congress had a legal right to ban intoxicating substances.
Alcohol prohibition was repealed by the 21st Amendment.
Where is the amendment authorizing drug prohibition? As a
strict constitutional conservative, your conservative friend
should oppose all drug laws as unconstitutional.
Unfortunately, your friend may agree with you that the drug
war is unconstitutional but conclude that "the Constitution
isn't a suicide pact" and argue that there are some
practical considerations which trump the Constitution. But
if he does that, you might ask whether practical
considerations also trump his right to free speech, freedom
of religion or the right to keep and bear arms. Chances are,
he sees these First Amendment rights as absolute. This is
inconsistent with his seeing the Ninth an Tenth Amendment as
being relative to practical concerns and may lead him to
rethink his pivot away from the Constitution and to accept
your argument.
Point Out Inconsistency with Accepted Facts in a Contrary
View: Here you show one of the premises supporting
your opponents' conclusion is false or that the conclusion
itself is false. Suppose an opponent argues that violent
crime is on the rise and that therefore we need stronger
"tough on crime" policies, like longer prison sentences and
"stop and frisk" policies. Pointing out FBI statistics which
show violent crime has gone down steadily since the
mid-1990s would be an effective way to oppose this argument.
Support Your Own View with Empirical Evidence:
When making an argument, one often appeals to empirical
facts from news reports, scholarly books or scientific
studies. Generally speaking, mainstream news reporting,
especially from a variety of sources, including the major
wire services, should be considered generally reliable,
along with the results of scientific experiments done at
universities, government research labs or reputable private
laboratories. Scholarly books and journals by university
presses or academic publishers are also good on matters of
culture or history, for example. A series of independent
news reports, scholarly works or experiments will correct
one another in case of an anomaly or error. News
organizations rely on a reputation for reliability and
scientists stake their reputations on rigorously following
protocols and safeguards to ensure their research is sound.
Journalists, scholars and scientists also make reputations
blowing their competitor's work out of the water. So, while
any individual news service or researcher is fallible, like
the rest of us, there are subject to rigid professional and
institutional standards. So, taken as an aggregate can be
regarded as reliable. However, it is also important to be on
the lookout for institutional bias. Such bias pervades the
media, academia and even the sciences and will be discussed
in detail later on.
Argument by Analogy: This is a very common form of
argument, especially in moral and political issues. The argument
begins with a case, sometimes hypothetical, which everyone
agrees has some quality. Next, the proponent says that this case
is like the case at hand about which he is trying to convince
you. Finally, the proponent argues that because these cases are
similar, the quality from the first case must carry over to the
second. Utilitarian philosopher Peter Singer says suppose you
are on your way to a lecture and see a child drowning in a small
pond, but stopping to save the child would ruin your new shoes
and make you late. He suggests that not saving the child under
those conditions would be monstrous. But then, he argues so is
going about our busy lives and chasing trivial pursuits while
children in the third world die of preventable diseases and
malnutrition. Just as we are obligated to help the fictitious
drowning child, we are obligated to help the "drowning" children
in impoverished countries.
Reductio Ad Absurdum: In this form of argument, you start
with your opponent's view, assume for the sake of argument that
it's true, then show it implies something totally implausible
that no one could possibly believe. For example, suppose
someone's a strong Second Amendment advocate and says there
should be no restrictions on firearms because it's the last line
of defense against a tyrannical government. But if you believe
that, you believe that people should be able to have weapons of
the type that could defend against a military takeover. That in
turn implies that people should be able to have fully automatic
machine guns, bazookas and anti-aircraft guns. But it's
ridiculous that someone be able to walk into a store and
purchase military armaments, capable of inflicting casualties on
a massive scale, so there must be
some restrictions on
firearms, whatever the Founding Fathers' motivations for the
Second Amendment. You might see this as an opposite approach to
argument by analogy. In argument by analogy, you start with a
case that everyone agrees with and try to show that your
argument is just like it; in reductio ad absurdum, you take your
opponent's case and show that it is like a case no one agrees
with.
What is an informal fallacy?
Mistakes in reasoning can be classified into two kinds.
Formal
fallacies show a mistake which can be put in symbolic form
and are mistakes in deductive logic. Deductive arguments are
either valid or invalid, depending on whether their premises
guarantee their conclusions. We looked at two formal fallacies,
denying the antecedent and assorting the consequent, which
masquerade as the valid argument forms
modus ponens and
modus tollens. Informal fallacies are mistakes in
inductive reasoning and also often mimic logically sound forms
of reasoning.